# Monthly 60/40 Equilibrium
Source: https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/60-40-equilibrium-004  
Published: 2024-03-18  
Tags: 60/40, Bonds, ETFs, SPY, Stocks, TLT, noindex

_What do current market movements in stocks and bonds have to say about 60/40 fund weights?_

# What do current market movements in stocks and bonds have to say about 60/40 fund weights?

<br />

This is the March 2024 installment of a
<a href="/blog/60-40-equilibrium-001">series</a>
of posts we make to track how the weights of a synthetic 60/40 stock/bond
portfolio evolve intra-month.

Each month we coduct a simple experiment:  track the cumulative intra-month
return of two stock/bond indices (say SPY and TLT).  Next, combine that data to
estimate a one standard deviation envelope of weights as a function of the days
in the month.  Then measure where the current weights sit within the envelope.
This provides a measure of how much a typical 60/40 fund needs to move in order
to restore equilibrium.

Figure 1 depicts the envelopes and current weights for SPY and TLT.

<br />

<img src="/admin/blog/image/72/blog_60_40_equilibrium_004.png">
#### **Figure 1**: Stock/Bond Weights For March 2024

<br />

Stocks/bonds are about 25 basis points over/under weight relative to history.