# 2s10s Spread (2-Year/10-Year)

Source: https://www.yieldcurve.pro/learn/2s10s-spread

The **2s10s spread** is the yield difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, expressed in basis points. It is the most widely cited measure of the yield curve slope and serves as a barometer for economic expectations and monetary policy positioning.

A positive 2s10s spread (the historical norm) indicates an upward-sloping curve. A negative spread means the curve is inverted. The spread fluctuates based on:

- **Fed policy expectations**: Anticipated rate hikes flatten the curve (raising 2Y more than 10Y); anticipated cuts steepen it
- **Economic outlook**: Growth optimism steepens the curve; recession fears flatten or invert it
- **Term premium shifts**: Changes in the compensation for holding longer-duration risk
- **Supply dynamics**: Treasury issuance patterns and dealer positioning

The 2s10s spread typically ranges from 0 to +250 bps during normal environments. It has inverted before every U.S. recession since the late 1970s. The 2022-2024 cycle saw a sustained inversion, with the spread reaching approximately **-108 bps** in July 2023.

Market participants reference the 2s10s spread in [regime classification](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes): a steepening spread during a rally is a **bull steepener**, while a flattening spread during a selloff is a **bear flattener**. The five regime classifications (bull/bear x steep/flat, plus Consolidation) each carry distinct implications for portfolio positioning. See the [30 Yr / 2 Yr regime page](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes/30-year/2-year) for the current classification and historical distribution using the long end of the curve.

## FAQ

### What does a negative 2s10s spread mean?

A negative spread, called an **inversion**, means the 2-year Treasury yields more than the 10-year. It signals that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut short-term rates in the future, typically in response to slowing growth. Every U.S. recession since the late 1970s has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, though the lead time has ranged from six months to over two years.

### How is the 2s10s spread different from the 3m10y spread?

Both measure the slope of the yield curve, but they emphasize different parts of the policy cycle. The [3m10y spread](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/learn/3m10y-spread) anchors the short end at the 3-month bill, which closely tracks the current Fed funds rate. The 2s10s anchors at the 2-year, which prices in expected Fed actions over the next two years. The 3m10y inversion has historically been the more reliable recession signal in academic research; the 2s10s is more widely cited by markets.

### Where can I see the live 2s10s spread on this site?

The [/spreads/2s10s](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/spreads/2s10s) page plots the daily history of the 2-year vs 10-year spread back to 1976, with NBER recession shading. The hub at [/spreads](https://www.yieldcurve.pro/spreads) shows the current value alongside other commonly tracked slope measures.