# Odds

Source: https://www.yieldcurve.pro/odds

This page displays implied probabilities from prediction markets for Treasury
rate outcomes. Data is sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.



The landing page shows summary tables grouped by **Level (Yield)** and
**Slope (Spread)** markets. Click any row to see the full detail page with
a chart and outcome probabilities.

Markets covered

* **Fed Funds Rate** - FOMC meeting outcome markets (rate cuts, holds, hikes)
* **10Y Daily / Weekly Yield** - Bracket markets on the 10-year Treasury yield
* **UST Par Yield Curve** - Quarterly 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y par yield levels
* **3Mo T-Bill Yield** - Quarterly 3-month Treasury bill yield
* **10Y-2Y / 10Y-3M Spreads** - Yield curve spread threshold markets

Each detail page shows

* **Chart** - The corresponding yield level or slope chart
* **Outcome** - The strike level or bracket being priced
* **Probability** - The market-implied probability from last trade or best ask
* **Volume** - Total contracts traded

## Notes

* probabilities reflect market consensus, not forecasts
* data refreshes every 5 minutes
* click "View on Kalshi" or "View on Polymarket" to see the full market

Use Cases

* gauge market expectations for Treasury yield movements
* compare prediction market odds with yield curve signals
* monitor curve spread and steepening/flattening probabilities

Further Reading

* <a href="https://kalshi.com/category/financials/treasuries" target="_blank">Kalshi Treasury Markets</a>
* <a href="https://polymarket.com" target="_blank">Polymarket</a>