# Odds Source: https://www.yieldcurve.pro/odds This page displays implied probabilities from prediction markets for Treasury rate outcomes. Data is sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket. The landing page shows summary tables grouped by **Levels**, **Slopes**, and **Fed Funds** markets. Click any row to see the full detail page with outcome probabilities. Each outcome row on a detail page has a **+** button. Click it to set a probability alert: choose whether you want to be notified when the market-implied probability crosses above or below a threshold you specify (e.g., alert me when the probability of a Fed rate cut exceeds 70%). You receive an email the moment the condition is met. One credit is deducted per alert fired. Credits can be purchased from the pricing page. Markets covered * **Fed Funds Rate** - FOMC meeting outcome markets (rate cuts, holds, hikes) * **10Y Daily / Weekly Yield** - bracket markets on the 10-year Treasury yield * **UST Par Yield Curve** - quarterly 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y par yield levels * **3Mo T-Bill Yield** - quarterly 3-month Treasury bill yield * **10Y-2Y / 10Y-3M Spreads** - yield curve spread threshold markets Each detail page shows * **Outcome** - the strike level or bracket being priced * **Odds** - market-implied probability displayed as a bar, from last trade or best ask * **Volume** - total contracts traded, shown below the outcomes table * **Chart** - trailing yield or spread history, shown below the outcomes for Level and Slope markets **Notes** * probabilities reflect market consensus, not forecasts * data is sourced directly from Kalshi and Polymarket; refresh frequency is determined by each venue * click "View on Kalshi" or "View on Polymarket" to see the full market * click the **+** button on any outcome row to set a probability alert; 1 credit is charged when the alert fires **Use Cases** * gauge market expectations for Treasury yield movements * compare prediction market odds with yield curve signals * monitor curve spread and steepening/flattening probabilities **Further Reading** * Kalshi Treasury Markets * Polymarket * Fed Funds Rate * Par Rate