yieldcurve.pro

About


Welcome to yieldcurve.pro!

This site hosts a blog and a suite of charting tools. We do this for fun and it is free of charge. If you found anything here entertaining or useful then please consider supporting our caffeine habit.


The blog shares thoughts on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income, government backed securities, quantitative portfolio management, and (of course) the yield curve.

The charting tools can visualize different aspects of the yield curve including:

  • Curves - Yield Curve charts
  • Levels - Individual tenor rate charts
  • Slopes - Long-term rate in excess of short-term rate charts
  • Regime - Interest rate regime analysis (Bull, Bear, Flattener, Steepener)
  • Auctions - US Treasury Bill, Note, and Bond auction data and grades

The subsequent sections describe each app using this format:

  • function and purpose
  • operating instructions
  • additional notes
  • use cases
  • further reading

Charts rendered by the different apps may be downloaded in either SVG or PNG format. To reset an app simply click on its corresponding tab.


Contact


Curves

This app allows users to chart Treasury yield curves, as a function of tenor, for two distinct dates.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively

Use Cases

  • discover tenors with the highest or lowest yields
  • determine dates with upward or downward sloping yield curves
  • compare different interest rate environments through time

Further Reading


Levels

This app allows users to chart rates for individual tenors as a function of time.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desire Tenor from the dropdown menu (you may select them all if you wish)
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Tenor is pre-populated with the 10 Yr Treasury.

Use Cases

  • visualize rates at different tenors as a function of time
  • compare tenors cross-sectionally at distinct points in time
  • identify high, low, and zero interest rate environments
  • gain a sense for the temporal evolution of the overall level of rates

Further Reading


Slopes

This app allows users to chart the difference in rates between two distinct tenors as a function of time.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Long Tenor and Short Tenor from the dropdown menus
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Long Tenor must be larger than Short Tenor and are pre-populated with 10 Yr and 2 Yr, respectively

Use Cases

  • identify periods of upward or downward sloping yields between two tenors
  • estimate the likelihood of economic recession

Further Reading


Regime

This app allows users to see which market Regime exists as of the selected date. The regime is a result of movements in yields as measured by the model we have chosen to estimate Level and Slope.

The possible regimes are

  • Bull Steepener - Level and Slope decreasing and increasing, respectively, characterized by short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates
  • Bull Flattener - Level and Slope both decreasing, characterized by long-term rates falling faster than short-term rates
  • Bear Steepener - Level and Slope both increasing, characterized by long-term rates rising faster than short-term rates
  • Bear Flattener - Level and Slope increasing and decreasing, respectively, characterized by short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.

Changes in Level and Slope are computed relative to a 6-month look-back window.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Long Tenor and Short Tenor from the dropdown menus
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Long Tenor must be larger than Short Tenor and are pre-populated with 10 Yr and 2 Yr, respectively

Use Cases

  • selecting the best asset classes for a given regime
  • risk management and hedging
  • economic analysis and forecasting

Further Reading


Auctions

This app allows users to explore different US Treasury Bill, Note, and Bond auction data.

The different data items include

  • Tail - This is the difference between the highest and average yield obtained by auction participants (reported in basis points). It is indicative of whether or not all buyers paid a similar price or did some get bonds on the cheap. A small tail relative to history is considered better.
  • Bid-to-Cover - This measures the total amount of bids received for a given auction divided by the amount actually sold. Higher relative to history is better.
  • Indirect - This is the percentage of non-competitive bidders (typically foreigners) placing bids through a primary dealer. They participate this way because they are often unable or unwilling to do so directly. Higher relative to history is better.
  • Direct - The is the percentage of institutions who are placing bids on the auction directly with the US Treasury. Higher relative to history is better.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Item from the dropdown menu
  • choose the desired Tenor from the dropdown menu
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Tenor is pre-populated with 13-Week
  • each Item is given a letter grade (D- to A) relative to the entire history selected by Start and End
  • an equally weighted Composite is calculated from the 4 Items
  • the most recent Item and Composite grades are show in the chart title as well as Avg and High yields followed by the Total dollar amount auctioned

Use Cases

  • identify periods of strengthening or weakening auctions
  • determine recent allocations in $ to different tenors

Further Reading


Blog

Posts ordered in reverse chronological order.