About yieldcurve.pro

Yield curve analytics. Free, fast, and always current.

yieldcurve.pro provides tools for analyzing US Treasury markets without the institutional price tag. Whether you're managing a portfolio, researching market dynamics, or tracking monetary policy, our platform delivers the data and visualizations you need—updated daily and completely free.

Why yieldcurve.pro?

Treasury yields drive everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs. The yield curve's shape signals market expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy. Yet accessing clean, historical yield curve data and building custom analytics typically requires expensive terminals or building everything from scratch.

We solve this by providing:

  • Complete historical data back to 2001, refreshed daily from official sources
  • Interactive charting tools for levels, slopes, inversions, and regime analysis
  • Curated research including academic papers, book recommendations, and market commentary
  • Real-time monitoring via custom alerts for yields, slopes, and curve regime changes (paid feature)

Who uses yieldcurve.pro?

  • Portfolio managers tracking duration positioning and curve strategies
  • Fixed-income traders monitoring auction results and curve dynamics
  • Quantitative analysts researching level-slope-curvature decomposition
  • Students and academics studying interest rate history and monetary policy
  • Financial journalists illustrating rate stories with accurate historical context

Tools and Resources

Free Interactive Charting Tools:

  • Curves - Compare yield curves across any two dates, with presets for major market events
  • Forwards - Explore implied forward rates derived from the par yield curve
  • Levels - Track individual tenor yields over time (2Y, 10Y, 30Y, etc.)
  • Slopes - Analyze spreads like 10Y-3M and 2s10s with full history
  • Premia - ACM term premium decomposition: expectations vs. risk compensation
  • Regimes - Classify interest rate environments (Bull/Bear Steepener/Flattener)
  • Auctions - View Treasury auction results with bid-to-cover and tail data
  • Fed - FOMC rate decisions with yield curve context at each meeting

All charts can be downloaded as SVG or PNG for presentations and publications.

Curated Content:

  • Blog - In-depth commentary on rates, monetary policy, and yield curve dynamics
  • News - RSS feed aggregator scoring fixed-income articles for relevance
  • Books - Essential reading list for bond market practitioners
  • Papers - Classic academic research on term structure and curve modeling

Account Features (Free):

  • Dashboard - Daily summary snapshot of current market conditions
  • Alerts - Email notifications when yields, slopes, or regimes cross your thresholds (paid feature)
  • Newsletter - Weekly digest of yield curve developments (coming soon!)
  • Defaults - Save your preferred tenor selections and lookback periods

How to Use This Site

The sections below provide detailed guides for each tool, including operating instructions, use cases, and recommended workflows. All tools work directly in your browser—no login required for basic features.

If you find this site useful, please consider supporting our caffeine habit via the donation link.


Contact


Curves

This app allows users to chart Treasury yield curves, as a function of tenor, for two distinct dates.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • optionally select from the Events dropdown to load a preset historical date
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Events provides preset dates for significant market events
  • Each preset has a dedicated URL for easy sharing (e.g., /curves?preset=lehman)

Preset Events

  • 2001 Post-9/11 - First trading day after the September 11 attacks
  • 2003 Fed Funds 1% - Trough of post-dot-com easing cycle (very steep curve)
  • 2006 Tightening Peak - Fed funds at 5.25% (classic late-cycle inversion)
  • 2008 Lehman Bankruptcy - Acute financial crisis (curve shape in chaos)
  • 2008 ZIRP Begins - Fed cuts to 0-0.25% (Zero Interest Rate Policy)
  • 2011 Operation Twist - Fed program to flatten curve by selling short-term and buying long-term Treasuries
  • 2020 COVID Crash - Treasury market dysfunction and liquidity crisis
  • 2022 Fed Tightening - Start of aggressive rate hike cycle (inversion developing)
  • 2023 Deepest Inversion - 10Y-3Mo at -189 bps (most inverted in decades)
  • 2023 10 Yr Touches 5% - Term premium resurgence (higher-for-longer peak)

Use Cases

  • discover tenors with the highest or lowest yields
  • determine dates with upward or downward sloping yield curves
  • compare different interest rate environments through time
  • quickly compare today's curve to historical events

Further Reading


Forwards

This app allows users to explore implied forward rates derived from the US Treasury par yield curve. Forward rates represent the market's implied future interest rates under no-arbitrage conditions.

The chart overlays the zero-coupon spot curve against the implied forward curve for the selected horizon. The spot curve is bootstrapped from the par yields shown on the Curves page. Spot rates differ from par yields because par yields embed coupon reinvestment assumptions — the spot rate at each tenor represents the pure discount rate for a single future cash flow. Forward rates can only be correctly derived from spot rates, not directly from par yields.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Date using the date selector
  • choose the desired Forward horizon (how far into the future) from the dropdown
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Date is pre-populated with the latest available trading day
  • Forward defaults to 1 Yr

Use Cases

  • assess what the market implies about future interest rates
  • identify carry and rolldown opportunities along the curve
  • compare spot rates to forward rates to gauge term premium

Further Reading


Levels

This app allows users to chart rates for individual tenors as a function of time.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desire Tenor from the dropdown menu (you may select them all if you wish)
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Tenor is pre-populated with short and long tenors from user preferences or system defaults (3 Mo and 10 Yr, respectively)

Use Cases

  • visualize rates at different tenors as a function of time
  • compare tenors cross-sectionally at distinct points in time
  • identify high, low, and zero interest rate environments
  • gain a sense for the temporal evolution of the overall level of rates

Further Reading


Slopes

This app allows users to chart the difference in rates between two distinct tenors as a function of time.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Long Tenor and Short Tenor from the dropdown menus
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Long Tenor and Short Tenor are pre-populated with system defaults (10 Yr and 3 Mo, respectively, unless customized by logged-in users)

Use Cases

  • identify periods of upward or downward sloping yields between two tenors
  • estimate the likelihood of economic recession

Further Reading


Term Premia

Every Treasury yield is the sum of two things: what markets expect short-term rates to average over the life of the bond and the extra yield investors demand as compensation for committing capital for longer. That extra yield is the term premium. The decomposition takes the form

$$y_n = \hat{y}_n + \xi_n$$

where

  • $y_n$ — observed Treasury yield at tenor $n$
  • $\hat{y}_n$ — risk-neutral yield (expected average short rate over the bond's life)
  • $\xi_n$ — term premium

The term premium is time-varying and can turn negative. During the Fed's quantitative easing programs (2008–2022), large-scale asset purchases suppressed term premia — long-term yields fell not because rate cut expectations changed, but because the risk compensation demanded by investors collapsed. Understanding which component is driving a yield move is essential for reading monetary policy signals accurately.

This tool estimates term premia using the ACM model (Adrian, Crump, and Moench 2013), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's official decomposition methodology. It uses a three-step linear regression on principal components of the yield curve to separate the expectations and risk-compensation components at each maturity.

Instructions

  • use the View menu to switch between Premia and Components
  • in Premia view: select one or more tenors (1Y–30Y) using the checkboxes and a date range; the chart shows each selected tenor labeled as e.g. 10 Yr (premium)
  • in Components view: select a single tenor from the dropdown to see the full decomposition — three lines labeled 10 Yr, 10 Yr (expected), and 10 Yr (premium)
  • click GO to update the chart after changing dates or tenors

Notes

  • term premia are estimated using all available daily yield curve history; the model re-fits after new data arrives and estimates for earlier dates may be revised slightly (normal for time-series models of this type)
  • negative term premia indicate that investors accept a lower yield than the expected short-rate path — common when safe-haven demand or central bank buying compresses risk compensation
  • our estimates will run approximately 1–2 percentage points higher than the NY Fed's published ACM series. the ACM model's VAR learns the unconditional mean short rate from history. the NY Fed trains on data back to 1961 (including the Volcker-era rates of 5–15%); this site uses data from 2001-present, a window dominated by the zero-rate era (2008–2021). as a result, our VAR estimates that rates mean-revert to roughly 2%, attributing more of the current yield to "premium" and less to "expected short rates." this is a known limitation of re-estimating the ACM model on a shorter history, not an error in the implementation. the NY Fed's published series is linked below.

Use Cases

  • parsing yield moves: when the 10Y yield rises, check whether the term premium or the expectations component is driving it; a term-premium rise signals shifting risk appetite, an expectations rise signals a more hawkish Fed repricing
  • monitoring QE/QT impact: term premia compress during asset purchase programs and widen during balance-sheet runoff; this page makes that dynamic visible in real time
  • cross-maturity risk structure: compare 2Y vs. 10Y term premia to understand where in the curve investors are demanding the most compensation
  • historical context: place today's term premium in context — is it elevated relative to the past decade, or near the post-QE floor?

Further Reading


Regimes

This app allows users to see which market regime exists as of the selected date. The regime is a result of movements in yields as measured by the Level and Slope components of the yield curve.

The principal components of the yield curve — Level and Slope — were formalized by Litterman and Scheinkman (1991) and account for the vast majority of historical yield curve variation. This app uses the following proxy definitions:

  • Level = 10 Yr (the general level of rates across the curve)
  • Slope = 10 Yr − 3 Mo (the spread between long and short rates)

The possible regimes are

  • Bull Steep - Level and Slope decreasing and increasing, respectively, characterized by short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates
  • Bull Flat - Level and Slope both decreasing, characterized by long-term rates falling faster than short-term rates
  • Bear Steep - Level and Slope both increasing, characterized by long-term rates rising faster than short-term rates
  • Bear Flat - Level and Slope increasing and decreasing, respectively, characterized by short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.

Changes in Level and Slope are computed relative to a lookback window. The system default is 251 market days but logged-in users can customize this value.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Long Tenor and Short Tenor from the dropdown menus
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Long Tenor and Short Tenor are pre-populated with system defaults (10 Yr and 3 Mo, respectively, unless customized by logged-in users)

Use Cases

  • selecting the best asset classes for a given regime
  • risk management and hedging
  • economic analysis and forecasting

Further Reading


Auctions

This app allows users to explore different US Treasury Bill, Note, and Bond auction data.

The different data items include

  • Tail - This is the difference between the highest and average yield obtained by auction participants (reported in basis points). It is indicative of whether or not all buyers paid a similar price or did some get bonds on the cheap. A small tail relative to history is considered better.
  • Bid-to-Cover - This measures the total amount of bids received for a given auction divided by the amount actually sold. Higher relative to history is better.
  • Indirect - This is the percentage of competitive bidders (typically foreign central banks and institutions) placing bids through a primary dealer. They participate this way because they are often unable or unwilling to bid directly with the Treasury. Higher relative to history is better.
  • Direct - The is the percentage of institutions who are placing bids on the auction directly with the US Treasury. Higher relative to history is better.

Instructions

  • choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
  • choose the desired Item from the dropdown menu
  • choose the desired Tenor from the dropdown menu
  • click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters

Notes

  • Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
  • Tenor is pre-populated with 4-Week
  • each Item is given a letter grade (D- to A) relative to the entire history selected by Start and End
  • an equally weighted Composite is calculated from the 4 Items
  • the most recent Item and Composite grades are show in the chart title as well as Avg and High yields followed by the Total dollar amount auctioned

Use Cases

  • identify periods of strengthening or weakening auctions
  • determine recent allocations in $ to different tenors

Further Reading


Fed

This app displays a historical table of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions alongside yield curve context. Each row shows an FOMC decision date with the corresponding yield curve level, slope, regime classification, and any Treasury auctions that occurred on that date.

The table columns include

  • Date - The FOMC decision date
  • Target - The Fed funds target rate (upper bound)
  • Change - Rate change in percentage points (green for hikes, red for cuts)
  • Level - The long tenor yield on that date (system default: 10 Yr; links to Levels app)
  • Slope - The long tenor minus short tenor spread in percentage points (system defaults: 10 Yr and 3 Mo; links to Slopes app)
  • Regime - The yield curve regime classification based on user's tenor and lookback preferences (links to Regimes app)
  • Auctions - Treasury auctions on that date (links to Auctions app)

Notes

  • decisions are shown in reverse chronological order (most recent first)
  • only rate change decisions are displayed (excludes meetings with no change)
  • clicking on links in the Level, Slope, Regime, or Auction columns navigates to the corresponding app with the date pre-populated

Use Cases

  • understand how FOMC decisions relate to yield curve conditions
  • identify patterns between Fed policy and market regimes
  • quickly navigate to detailed views for any historical FOMC date

Further Reading


Blog

The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.

Instructions

  • browse posts in reverse chronological order (newest first)
  • click Read to view the full post
  • use pagination at the bottom to navigate between pages

Notes

  • posts are paginated with 3 posts per page
  • each post includes tags for easy categorization


Books

A curated collection of recommended reading on the capital markets and quantitative finance.

Instructions

  • click on any book title to view it on Amazon

Notes

  • this list reflects personal recommendations and is not exhaustive


News

A curated feed of fixed-income and macroeconomic news from trusted RSS sources. Articles are scored for relevance to help surface the most important stories for yield curve and rates market participants.

Instructions

  • browse articles organized by category (e.g., Fed & Monetary Policy, Treasury Markets)
  • click on any headline to read the full article at its source
  • subscribe for unlimited access to all articles

Notes

  • articles are refreshed throughout the day from curated RSS feeds
  • each article is scored for relevance to fixed-income topics
  • free users can read a limited number of articles per day


Papers

A collection of historically important and hard to find academic and industry research papers relevant to yield curve analysis and fixed-income markets.

Instructions

  • click on any paper title to access the PDF or source
  • papers are organized by source

Notes

  • they are hosted...free of charge!


Dashboard

The Morning Dashboard provides registered users with a daily market snapshot, consolidating key yield curve metrics into a single view. Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.

The dashboard includes:

  • Morning Dashboard - Current date and logged-in user
  • Curve Changes (bps) - Yields for all tenors with changes over Day, Week, Month, Quarter, and Year lookback periods
  • Level & Slope Changes (bps) - The Level (long tenor yield) and Slope (long minus short tenor spread) with changes over the same lookback periods, using your configured tenor preferences or system defaults (10 Yr and 3 Mo)
  • Regime Lookbacks - The yield curve regime classification at each lookback period (Bull/Bear Steep/Flat), calculated using your configured tenor and regime lookback preferences
  • Latest Auctions - Recent Treasury auctions with Tail, Bid-to-Cover, Indirect, and Direct percentages, along with letter grades and composite scores
  • Fed Funds Changes (bps) - Current Fed funds target rate with changes over each lookback period

Notes

  • positive changes appear in green, negative in red
  • auction grades range from D- to A, comparing each metric to historical values
  • tenor links in Latest Auctions navigate to the Auctions app for that date
  • hovering over column names provides tool-tip text

Use Cases

  • quickly assess overnight and recent market movements
  • monitor yield curve regime changes
  • track recent auction performance at a glance
  • identify shifts in Fed policy relative to yield curve conditions


Alerts

Alerts allow you to receive email notifications when specific market conditions are met. This is a paid feature that uses alert credits. See the Alerts How-To Guide for detailed instructions.

Alert types include:

  • Yield Alerts - Trigger when a specific tenor's yield crosses above or below your threshold (e.g., "Notify me when the 10 Yr yield rises above 4.50%")
  • Slope Alerts - Trigger when the yield curve slope (long tenor minus short tenor) crosses your threshold (e.g., "Notify me when the 10Y-3Mo spread falls below 0%")
  • Level Alerts - Trigger when the overall yield level crosses your threshold

Instructions

  • navigate to My Alerts from your Account Dashboard
  • click Create Alert to define a new alert
  • select the alert type, condition, and threshold
  • alerts are evaluated daily after Treasury data is published

Notes

  • triggered alerts consume alert credits (purchase via Buy Credits)
  • when an alert triggers, you receive an email notification
  • triggered alerts are automatically deleted (one-shot behavior)
  • one credit is consumed each time an alert triggers
  • you can also create alerts directly from the Morning Dashboard by clicking the + button next to any yield or metric

Use Cases

  • get notified when yields reach attractive entry points
  • monitor yield curve inversions or steepening
  • set price alerts for specific Treasury tenors


Newsletter

An email digest covering yield curve developments, auction results, regime changes, and market commentary. The newsletter distills key insights from the site's charting tools and blog into a convenient email format.

We will never share your email address and will send out at most one email each week. To receive the newsletter when it launches, sign up for an account and ensure your email preferences are enabled.

Coming soon!


Defaults

Users with accounts can personalize the default tenor and regime lookback settings used throughout the application. Access these settings via your Account page (click the user icon in the upper right corner).

Customizable settings include:

  • Short Tenor - Short-term tenor used throughout the app for slope, regime, level, and component calculations. System default: 3 Mo
  • Long Tenor - Long-term tenor used throughout the app for level, slope, regime, and component calculations. System default: 10 Yr
  • Regime Lookback - Lookback window in trading days for regime classification. System default: 251

Once configured, your preferences will:

  • pre-populate dropdown menus in the Levels, Slopes, and Regimes apps
  • affect the Level, Slope, and Regime columns in the Fed app
  • apply consistently across all charts and data displays

Notes

  • leave any field blank to use the system default value
  • changes take effect immediately across all apps
  • your preferences persist across sessions

Use Cases

  • focus on preferred tenors that match your trading or research strategy
  • adjust regime lookback periods to match your investment horizon
  • quickly switch between different analytical perspectives by updating preferences from your Account page