The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
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Apple manages its idle cash via a billion dollar bond book out of a Reno office. Is it possible to use the humble T-bill to manage your idle cash just as effectively?
This week's 10-year and 30-year auctions both printed soft while 2-year demand stayed near multi-year highs. What bid-to-cover measures, where each tenor stands today, and two case studies that show when one weak auction is noise and when it's signal.
Carry is the income a bond earns above its funding cost. Rolldown is the price appreciation from aging down a positively sloped curve. Together they define the baseline return of every duration position. A walkthrough using today's curve.
The 2s10s steepener requires 4x capital, carries flat, and just ran into a bear flattener. Three calculators put exact numbers on every dimension of the trade's failure — tenor by tenor, basis point by basis point.
Treasury sold $183 billion in notes during the first week of the Iran war. The grades: D, C-, D+. Four auction metrics reveal where demand disappeared.
We built a daily CFA-level quiz, then four more calculators to help you study for it.
A 1973 one-night hack at Bell Labs became the most invoked command in computing history — and now it powers the AI coding agents reshaping software development.
The lifecycle portfolio calculator treats future income as human capital — a bond-like asset — and uses Choi, Liu & Liu (2025) to derive an optimal equity glide path grounded in theory, not rules of thumb.
YCP's new Odds page brings Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities for Treasury yields, spreads, and Fed decisions — bridging prediction markets and fixed-income analytics on a single screen.
yieldcurve.pro now has a REST API. Bearer token auth, JSON responses, 9 endpoints covering yields, auctions, forwards, term premia, regimes, and FOMC decisions.
Introducing ChatYCP — an AI research assistant embedded on every chart page that can query 25 years of Treasury data and answer fixed-income questions in real time.
Ian Harnett argues the 40-year stock-bond correlation regime is over. If he's right, most institutional portfolios are running unhedged risk they haven't priced.