Charts headline CPI and Core CPI (ex food and energy) year-over-year
inflation rates alongside market-implied inflation expectations from
TIPS breakeven rates. Use the date picker to zoom into any period.
Series
- CPI YoY — headline Consumer Price Index year-over-year change,
updated monthly from FRED (series CPIAUCSL)
- Core CPI YoY — CPI excluding food and energy, updated monthly
from FRED (series CPILFESL) which is the Fed's preferred measure of
underlying inflation trends
- 5 Yr Breakeven — market-implied average inflation over the next
5 years, derived from the spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS
- 10 Yr Breakeven — same concept over a 10-year horizon
Use Cases
- compare realized inflation against market expectations
- track the gap between headline and core CPI
- monitor inflation expectations for bond portfolio positioning
- identify when breakeven rates diverge from realized inflation
Further Reading