A yield curve glossary of fixed-income concepts, from fundamentals to trading strategies. Each entry explains a term used throughout the site's charting tools and analysis, with links to relevant charts and related concepts.
Instructions
Notes
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%), the standard unit for quoting yield changes and spreads.
The iterative process of extracting zero-coupon (spot) rates from the par yield curve.
The theory that long-term yields equal the market's expectation of future short-term rates, with no risk premium.
The overnight lending rate set by the Federal Reserve, the primary tool of U.S. monetary policy.
The implied future interest rate derived from the current yield curve using no-arbitrage pricing.
The date on which a bond's principal is repaid, determining its position on the yield curve.
The most recently issued Treasury security for a given maturity, which trades with the highest liquidity.
The coupon rate at which a bond prices at par (100), forming the standard Treasury yield curve.
The inflation-adjusted yield on a bond, representing the true return to an investor after accounting for purchasing power erosion.
The yield on a zero-coupon bond for a specific maturity, representing the pure time value of money.
The extra yield investors demand for holding longer-maturity bonds over rolling short-term debt.
A line plotting Treasury yields across maturities from short-term bills to long-term bonds.
When short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term yields, often signaling recession risk.
The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, the most widely tracked yield curve slope measure.
The difference between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's preferred recession indicator.
A yield curve regime where rates rise and the curve flattens, often signaling monetary tightening.
A yield curve regime where rates rise and the curve steepens, often driven by rising term premium or fiscal concerns.
A yield curve regime where rates fall and the curve flattens, driven by long-end demand exceeding short-end demand.
A yield curve regime where rates fall and the curve steepens, typically signaling expectations of monetary easing.
A three-legged yield curve trade that isolates curvature by going long the wings and short the belly, or vice versa.
The yield premium a corporate or non-government bond pays over the risk-free Treasury yield at the same maturity.
The ratio of total bids to the amount sold at a Treasury auction, measuring demand strength.
A financial institution authorized to trade directly with the Federal Reserve and required to participate in Treasury auctions.
The difference between the auction high yield and the pre-auction when-issued yield, measuring whether the auction priced cheap or rich.
The process by which the U.S. government sells new debt securities to fund operations.
Trading in a Treasury security before it has been formally issued, establishing the pre-auction benchmark yield.
The amount yields must rise before a bond position loses money, combining carry and roll-down return.
The income earned from holding a bond, equal to the coupon income minus the cost of financing the position.
A measure of how a bond's duration changes as yields move, capturing the curvature of the price-yield relationship.
The dollar value change of a bond position for a 1 basis point move in yield.
A measure of a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes, expressed in years.
The yield pickup a bond earns as it ages along an upward-sloping yield curve.
The risk-adjusted return of an investment, measuring excess return per unit of volatility.
The standard deviation of yield changes, measuring how much interest rates fluctuate over a given period.
The number of standard deviations a value lies from its historical mean, used to identify extreme readings.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-making body that sets the federal funds rate target.
The market's forecast of future inflation, embedded in nominal yields and measurable via TIPS breakevens.
Large-scale central bank asset purchases designed to lower long-term yields when the policy rate is at or near zero.
The process of reducing the central bank's balance sheet by letting bonds mature without reinvestment, the reverse of QE.
The 2013 market selloff triggered by the Fed signaling it would reduce the pace of quantitative easing.
The constraint preventing central banks from cutting interest rates significantly below zero, limiting conventional monetary policy.
The benchmark asset allocation of 60% equities and 40% bonds, the foundation of institutional portfolio construction.
Two portfolio structures — barbell concentrates in short and long maturities; bullet concentrates in intermediate maturities.
A position designed to profit from changes in the yield curve's shape rather than the overall level of rates.
A portfolio or trade construction where interest rate sensitivity nets to zero, isolating exposure to curve shape changes.
A market dynamic where investors sell risky assets and buy safe-haven Treasuries, compressing Treasury yields.
An analytical approach that compares securities to identify mispricings along the yield curve.
The co-movement between equity and bond returns, which determines the diversification benefit of holding both asset classes.
The Adrian, Crump, and Moench model that decomposes Treasury yields into rate expectations and term premium components.
The tendency of interest rates to drift back toward a long-run average, a key assumption in term structure models.
A statistical method that decomposes yield curve movements into independent factors, typically level, slope, and curvature.
A short-term secured loan where one party sells securities and agrees to repurchase them, forming the backbone of Treasury market financing.