Odds

This page displays implied probabilities from prediction markets for Treasury rate outcomes. Data is sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

The landing page shows summary tables grouped by Level (Yield) and Slope (Spread) markets. Click any row to see the full detail page with a chart and outcome probabilities.

Markets covered

• Fed Funds Rate - FOMC meeting outcome markets (rate cuts, holds, hikes)
• 10Y Daily / Weekly Yield - Bracket markets on the 10-year Treasury yield
• UST Par Yield Curve - Quarterly 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y par yield levels
• 3Mo T-Bill Yield - Quarterly 3-month Treasury bill yield
• 10Y-2Y / 10Y-3M Spreads - Yield curve spread threshold markets

Each detail page shows

• Chart - The corresponding yield level or slope chart
• Outcome - The strike level or bracket being priced
• Probability - The market-implied probability from last trade or best ask
• Volume - Total contracts traded

Notes

• probabilities reflect market consensus, not forecasts
• data refreshes every 5 minutes
• click "View on Kalshi" or "View on Polymarket" to see the full market

Use Cases

• gauge market expectations for Treasury yield movements
• compare prediction market odds with yield curve signals
• monitor curve spread and steepening/flattening probabilities

Further Reading

• Kalshi Treasury Markets
• Polymarket