Odds

This page displays implied probabilities from prediction markets for Treasury rate outcomes. Data is sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.

The landing page shows summary tables grouped by Levels, Slopes, and Fed Funds markets. Click any row to see the full detail page with outcome probabilities.

Each outcome row on a detail page has a + button. Click it to set a probability alert: choose whether you want to be notified when the market-implied probability crosses above or below a threshold you specify (e.g., alert me when the probability of a Fed rate cut exceeds 70%). You receive an email the moment the condition is met. One credit is deducted per alert fired. Credits can be purchased from the pricing page.

Markets covered

• Fed Funds Rate - FOMC meeting outcome markets (rate cuts, holds, hikes)
• 10Y Daily / Weekly Yield - bracket markets on the 10-year Treasury yield
• UST Par Yield Curve - quarterly 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y par yield levels
• 3Mo T-Bill Yield - quarterly 3-month Treasury bill yield
• 10Y-2Y / 10Y-3M Spreads - yield curve spread threshold markets

Each detail page shows

• Outcome - the strike level or bracket being priced
• Odds - market-implied probability displayed as a bar, from last trade or best ask
• Volume - total contracts traded, shown below the outcomes table
• Chart - trailing yield or spread history, shown below the outcomes for Level and Slope markets

Notes

• probabilities reflect market consensus, not forecasts
• data is sourced directly from Kalshi and Polymarket; refresh frequency is determined by each venue
• click "View on Kalshi" or "View on Polymarket" to see the full market
• click the + button on any outcome row to set a probability alert; 1 credit is charged when the alert fires

Use Cases

• gauge market expectations for Treasury yield movements
• compare prediction market odds with yield curve signals
• monitor curve spread and steepening/flattening probabilities

Further Reading

• Kalshi Treasury Markets
• Polymarket
• Fed Funds Rate
• Par Rate