| Outcome | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Cut 25bps |
74%
|
|
| Fed maintains rate |
53%
|
|
| Cut >25bps |
10%
|
|
| Hike >25bps |
7%
|
|
| Hike 25bps |
1%
|
Volume: 4,342 contracts
This market prices the probability distribution for the next FOMC rate decision. The outcomes reflect where prediction market traders believe the federal funds rate will land after the meeting. Compare these implied odds against the historical pattern of Fed decisions and the current yield curve environment.
Prediction markets react to news in real time, making them a useful complement to survey-based forecasts. An NBER working paper by Diercks, Katz, and Wright found that Kalshi's modal FOMC forecast maintained a perfect track record from 2022 through mid-2026, outperforming both the Survey of Primary Dealers and Bloomberg consensus.