| Outcome | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| July 2027 Meeting |
57%
|
|
| April 2027 Meeting |
50%
|
|
| June 2027 Meeting |
36%
|
|
| March 2027 Meeting |
11%
|
|
| January 2027 Meeting |
10%
|
|
| December 2026 Meeting |
2%
|
|
| January Meeting |
0%
|
|
| March Meeting |
0%
|
|
| April Meeting |
0%
|
|
| June Meeting |
0%
|
|
| July Meeting |
0%
|
|
| September 2026 Meeting |
0%
|
|
| October 2026 Meeting |
0%
|
Volume: 3,854,067 contracts
This market prices the probability distribution for the next FOMC rate decision. The outcomes reflect where prediction market traders believe the federal funds rate will land after the meeting. Compare these implied odds against the historical pattern of Fed decisions and the current yield curve environment.
Prediction markets react to news in real time, making them a useful complement to survey-based forecasts. An NBER working paper by Diercks, Katz, and Wright found that Kalshi's modal FOMC forecast maintained a perfect track record from 2022 through mid-2026, outperforming both the Survey of Primary Dealers and Bloomberg consensus.