The 2s10s spread is the yield difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes, expressed in basis points. It is the most widely cited measure of the yield curve slope and serves as a barometer for economic expectations and monetary policy positioning.
A positive 2s10s spread (the historical norm) indicates an upward-sloping curve. A negative spread means the curve is inverted. The spread fluctuates based on:
The 2s10s spread typically ranges from 0 to +250 bps during normal environments. It has inverted before every U.S. recession since the late 1970s. The 2022-2024 cycle saw a sustained inversion, with the spread reaching approximately -108 bps in July 2023.
Market participants reference the 2s10s spread in regime classification: a steepening spread during a rally is a bull steepener, while a flattening spread during a selloff is a bear flattener. The five regime classifications (bull/bear x steep/flat, plus Consolidation) each carry distinct implications for portfolio positioning. See the 30 Yr / 2 Yr regime page for the current classification and historical distribution using the long end of the curve.
A negative spread, called an inversion, means the 2-year Treasury yields more than the 10-year. It signals that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut short-term rates in the future, typically in response to slowing growth. Every U.S. recession since the late 1970s has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, though the lead time has ranged from six months to over two years.
Both measure the slope of the yield curve, but they emphasize different parts of the policy cycle. The 3m10y spread anchors the short end at the 3-month bill, which closely tracks the current Fed funds rate. The 2s10s anchors at the 2-year, which prices in expected Fed actions over the next two years. The 3m10y inversion has historically been the more reliable recession signal in academic research; the 2s10s is more widely cited by markets.
The /spreads/2s10s page plots the daily history of the 2-year vs 10-year spread back to 1976, with NBER recession shading. The hub at /spreads shows the current value alongside other commonly tracked slope measures.