The yield curve is a graph that plots the yields of U.S. Treasury securities against their maturities, from the shortest (1-month bills) to the longest (30-year bonds). It represents the term structure of interest rates at a single point in time.
A normal yield curve slopes upward: longer maturities pay higher yields to compensate investors for the additional risk of holding debt over a longer horizon. This extra compensation reflects both interest rate risk (duration) and uncertainty about future economic conditions.
The shape of the curve encodes the market's collective expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Three principal components describe its behavior:
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is the global benchmark for risk-free rates. It serves as the foundation for pricing corporate bonds, mortgages, interest rate swaps, and virtually all fixed-income instruments.
Traders and economists monitor the curve continuously because changes in its shape often precede shifts in the economic cycle. A flattening or inverting curve has historically signaled slowing growth or recession, while a steepening curve often signals recovery or expectations of easier monetary policy.