The yield curve regime for 20 Yr vs 1 Yr is currently Consolidation as of April 17, 2026. Over the lookback period, the curve has spent 30% Bull Flat, 22% Bear Steep, 19% Bull Steep, 18% Bear Flat, 12% Consolidation of the time in each regime. Regime classification helps traders identify whether yield and slope movements are driven by bullish or bearish forces, informing duration and curve positioning decisions.
| Bull Steep | Bull Flat | Bear Steep | Bear Flat | Consolidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.4% | 29.5% | 21.6% | 17.7% | 11.7% |
Yield curve regimes classify the interest rate environment into four states based on the direction of the level (20 Yr yield) and slope (20 Yr − 1 Yr spread). A Bull Steep regime occurs when yields are falling and the curve is steepening — typical of Fed easing cycles. A Bear Flat regime means yields are rising while the curve flattens, often seen during monetary tightening. Bull Flat reflects falling yields with a flattening curve (flight-to-quality rally concentrated in long maturities), and Bear Steep indicates rising yields with a steepening curve (term premium expansion or fiscal concern). The current regime of Consolidation with a spread of 121 bps provides context for positioning decisions — each regime historically favors different duration and curve strategies.