The yield curve regime for 30 Yr vs 7 Yr is currently Bear Flat as of October 14, 2026. Over the lookback period, the curve has spent 25% Bull Steep, 23% Bear Flat, 19% Bear Steep, 17% Bull Flat, 16% Consolidation of the time in each regime. Regime classification helps traders identify whether yield and slope movements are driven by bullish or bearish forces, informing duration and curve positioning decisions.
| Bull Steep | Bull Flat | Bear Steep | Bear Flat | Consolidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.9% | 17.4% | 18.9% | 22.8% | 16.0% |
Yield curve regimes classify the interest rate environment into four states based on the direction of the level (30 Yr yield) and slope (30 Yr − 7 Yr spread). A Bull Steep regime occurs when yields are falling and the curve is steepening — typical of Fed easing cycles. A Bear Flat regime means yields are rising while the curve flattens, often seen during monetary tightening. Bull Flat reflects falling yields with a flattening curve (flight-to-quality rally concentrated in long maturities), and Bear Steep indicates rising yields with a steepening curve (term premium expansion or fiscal concern). The current regime of Bear Flat with a spread of 43 bps provides context for positioning decisions — each regime historically favors different duration and curve strategies.