The yield curve regime for 5 Yr vs 3 Yr is currently Consolidation as of April 17, 2026. Over the lookback period, the curve has spent 23% Bear Flat, 21% Bull Steep, 21% Consolidation, 19% Bull Flat, 16% Bear Steep of the time in each regime. Regime classification helps traders identify whether yield and slope movements are driven by bullish or bearish forces, informing duration and curve positioning decisions.
| Bull Steep | Bull Flat | Bear Steep | Bear Flat | Consolidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.8% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 23.0% | 20.6% |
Yield curve regimes classify the interest rate environment into four states based on the direction of the level (5 Yr yield) and slope (5 Yr − 3 Yr spread). A Bull Steep regime occurs when yields are falling and the curve is steepening — typical of Fed easing cycles. A Bear Flat regime means yields are rising while the curve flattens, often seen during monetary tightening. Bull Flat reflects falling yields with a flattening curve (flight-to-quality rally concentrated in long maturities), and Bear Steep indicates rising yields with a steepening curve (term premium expansion or fiscal concern). The current regime of Consolidation with a spread of 12 bps provides context for positioning decisions — each regime historically favors different duration and curve strategies.