The 10 Yr - 3 Mo spread (3m10y) is +56 basis points as of April 17, 2026, down 6 bps on the day. The 52-week range is -17 to 71 bps. The 3m10y is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's preferred recession indicator. When this spread inverts, the model's 12-month recession probability rises sharply.
| ΔD(bps) | ΔW(bps) | ΔM(bps) | ΔQ(bps) | ΔY(bps) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | -6 | +4 | -1 | +54 |
Current spread is at the 88th percentile of its 52-week range.
The 10 Yr - 3 Mo Treasury spread is the difference between the 10 Yr and 3 Mo par yields. When positive, the curve is "normal" — longer maturities yield more than shorter ones, compensating investors for duration risk. When negative (inverted), the curve signals that the market expects lower future rates, often associated with recession risk or aggressive monetary tightening. The current level of 56 bps sits at the 88th percentile of its 52-week range (-17 to 71 bps). Spread changes are driven by shifts in rate expectations, term premium, and supply-demand dynamics. Fixed income traders use these spreads to construct curve trades — steepeners profit when the spread widens, flatteners when it narrows.