The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
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A 1973 one-night hack at Bell Labs became the most invoked command in computing history — and now it powers the AI coding agents reshaping software development.
The lifecycle portfolio calculator treats future income as human capital — a bond-like asset — and uses Choi, Liu & Liu (2025) to derive an optimal equity glide path grounded in theory, not rules of thumb.
YCP's new Odds page brings Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities for Treasury yields, spreads, and Fed decisions — bridging prediction markets and fixed-income analytics on a single screen.
yieldcurve.pro now has a REST API. Bearer token auth, JSON responses, 9 endpoints covering yields, auctions, forwards, term premia, regimes, and FOMC decisions.
Introducing ChatYCP — an AI research assistant embedded on every chart page that can query 25 years of Treasury data and answer fixed-income questions in real time.
Ian Harnett argues the 40-year stock-bond correlation regime is over. If he's right, most institutional portfolios are running unhedged risk they haven't priced.
A chronological tour of ten yield curve snapshots — precise to the basis point — from 9/11 to the 2023 term-premium surge. Each one a policy inflection point, a crisis record, or both.
The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.
What are implied forward rates and how do you read them? A practical guide to extracting market expectations from the yield curve, with interactive charts.
The second installment of Salomon Brothers' Understanding the Yield Curve series exposes the gap between forward-implied rate changes and actual market expectations, revealing persistent risk premia that inform modern fixed income strategies.
The first installment of Salomon Brothers' Understanding the Yield Curve series laid groundwork for systematic yield curve trading that remains relevant three decades later.