The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
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Treasury yields rose again in 2026, and commentary describes a continued bond sell-off. Six iShares Treasury ETFs show that most of the losses occurred between August 2020 and October 2023. Since the October 2023 low, five of the six funds have trended upward. The 2026 decline is small next to the earlier losses.
A Treasury fund's yield forecasts its return best over a holding period of about twice the fund's duration and less well over shorter periods. The post tests the claim on fifty-seven years of constant maturity data for four tenors and ends with four rules.
The 2s10s steepener requires 4x capital, carries flat, and just ran into a bear flattener. Three calculators put exact numbers on every dimension of the trade's failure — tenor by tenor, basis point by basis point.
We built a daily CFA-level quiz, then four more calculators to help you study for it.
The 1985 Salomon Brothers manual on duration and volatility remains a foundational text for fixed-income risk management, providing rigorous analytics and practical applications that persist in modern markets.