The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.

Instructions

  • browse posts in reverse chronological order (newest first)
  • click Read to view the full post
  • use pagination at the bottom to navigate between pages

Notes

  • posts are paginated with 3 posts per page
  • each post includes tags for easy categorization
  • logged-in users can leave comments on individual posts
Filter by topic or year
Topics Clear
Bonds 36 ETFs 27 Yield Curve 25 Stocks 20 TLT 18 SPY 17 60/40 13 Fixed Income 11 US Treasury 11 Auction 8 Bills 7 Diversification 7
More topics (48)
Notes 7 Treasury 6 Bid to Coverage Ratio 5 Gold 5 IEF 5 Bear Steepener 4 Bond Beta 4 Feature 4 Forward Rates 4 GLD 4 IEI 4 Salomon Brothers 4 SHY 4 Stock Beta 4 Term Structure 4 TLH 4 Correlation 3 Duration 3 Fixed-Income 3 GICS 3 Recession 3 Return Stacking 3 Trend Following 3 60-40 Portfolios 2 AGG 2 AI 2 Bid-to-Coverage Ratio 2 Bond Risk Premium 2 Carry 2 Convexity 2 Direct Bids 2 Federal Reserve 2 Government Bonds 2 History 2 Indirect Bids 2 Inflation 2 Interest Rate environments 2 Portfolio Construction 2 Price Tail 2 Rates 2 Regime 2 Rolldown 2 SHV 2 SSRN 2 Term Premium 2 Treasury Bonds 2 2s10s Spread 1 3m10s Spread 1
Year
202616 20255 202426 202314
Latest Popular
February 20, 2026 Members By yieldcurve.pro
The Yield Curve Recession That Never Came

The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.

Yield Curve Recession 2s10s Spread 3m10s Spread Campbell Harvey Inversion False Positive Federal Reserve Term Premium Fiscal Dominance Monetary Policy Treasury Fixed Income Economic Indicators Soft Landing
Read
February 09, 2024 By yieldcurve.pro
Papers We Read This Week

Three articles discussing machine learning applied to the yield curve

Credit Growth Fnancial Crises Fnancial Stability LightGBM Machine Learning Machine Learning Neural Networks Probit Random Forest Recession Recession Forecasting SSRN Shapley Values Support Vector Machine Tree ensemble XGBoost Yield Curve
Read
August 15, 2023 By yieldcurve.pro
The Importance of the US Treasury Yield Curve

Learn why the Yield Curve is important to the economy and capital markets.

Interest Rates Recession Yield Curve
Read
Topics Clear
Bonds 36 ETFs 27 Yield Curve 25 Stocks 20 TLT 18 SPY 17 60/40 13 Fixed Income 11 US Treasury 11 Auction 8 Bills 7 Diversification 7
More topics (48)
Notes 7 Treasury 6 Bid to Coverage Ratio 5 Gold 5 IEF 5 Bear Steepener 4 Bond Beta 4 Feature 4 Forward Rates 4 GLD 4 IEI 4 Salomon Brothers 4 SHY 4 Stock Beta 4 Term Structure 4 TLH 4 Correlation 3 Duration 3 Fixed-Income 3 GICS 3 Recession 3 Return Stacking 3 Trend Following 3 60-40 Portfolios 2 AGG 2 AI 2 Bid-to-Coverage Ratio 2 Bond Risk Premium 2 Carry 2 Convexity 2 Direct Bids 2 Federal Reserve 2 Government Bonds 2 History 2 Indirect Bids 2 Inflation 2 Interest Rate environments 2 Portfolio Construction 2 Price Tail 2 Rates 2 Regime 2 Rolldown 2 SHV 2 SSRN 2 Term Premium 2 Treasury Bonds 2 2s10s Spread 1 3m10s Spread 1
Year
202616 20255 202426 202314