The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.

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Latest Popular
February 23, 2026 By yieldcurve.pro
The End of the Hedge


Ian Harnett argues the 40-year stock-bond correlation regime is over. If he's right, most institutional portfolios are running unhedged risk they haven't priced.

Tags: Bonds, Correlation, Regime, Inflation, Portfolio Construction

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February 23, 2026 By yieldcurve.pro
The Shape of Risk: Ten Treasury Curve Snapshots That Defined the Modern Era


A chronological tour of ten yield curve snapshots — precise to the basis point — from 9/11 to the 2023 term-premium surge. Each one a policy inflection point, a crisis record, or both.

Tags: Yield Curve, History, Macro, Fixed-income, Regime

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February 20, 2026 By yieldcurve.pro
The Yield Curve Predicted a Recession That Never Came — What Went Wrong?


The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.

Tags: Yield Curve, Recession, 2s10s Spread, 3m10s Spread, Campbell Harvey, Inversion, False Positive, Federal Reserve, Term Premium, Fiscal Dominance, Monetary Policy, Treasury, Fixed Income, Economic Indicators, Soft Landing

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