The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
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YCP's new Odds page brings Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities for Treasury yields, spreads, and Fed decisions — bridging prediction markets and fixed-income analytics on a single screen.
The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.