| Outcome | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Below 4.52% |
64%
|
|
| Below 4.49% |
63%
|
|
| Below 4.43% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.27% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.32% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.37% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.40% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.46% |
50%
|
|
| Below 4.20% |
38%
|
Volume: 485 contracts
This market prices expected Treasury yield outcomes at a specific maturity. The probability distribution shows where traders believe the yield will settle. The chart above shows the trailing year of actual yield history for context.
Prediction markets react to news in real time, making them a useful complement to survey-based forecasts. An NBER working paper by Diercks, Katz, and Wright found that Kalshi's modal FOMC forecast maintained a perfect track record from 2022 through mid-2026, outperforming both the Survey of Primary Dealers and Bloomberg consensus.