Slopes

This app allows users to chart the difference in rates between two distinct tenors as a function of time.

Instructions

• choose the desired Start and End dates using the two date selectors
• choose the desired Long Tenor and Short Tenor from the dropdown menus
• click GO to render the chart for the chosen parameters
• click the sparkle button to open ChatYCP and ask questions about the data (login required)

Notes

• Start and End are pre-populated with the earliest and latest dates available, respectively
• Long Tenor and Short Tenor are pre-populated with system defaults (10 Yr and 3 Mo, respectively). Logged-in users can change these via Account Defaults
• try asking ChatYCP: "Is the 10Y-2Y spread currently positive or negative?" or "When was the 10Y-2Y spread most inverted, and what was the value?"

Use Cases

• identify periods of upward or downward sloping yields between two tenors
• estimate the likelihood of economic recession

Further Reading

• Yield Curve Slope
• Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?
• The Importance of the US Treasury Yield Curve
• The Yield Curve Predicted a Recession That Never Came
• Does The Yield Curve Follow a Cycle?