The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
Instructions
Notes
Apple manages its idle cash via a billion dollar bond book out of a Reno office. Is it possible to use the humble T-bill to manage your idle cash just as effectively?
Carry is the income a bond earns above its funding cost. Rolldown is the price appreciation from aging down a positively sloped curve. Together they define the baseline return of every duration position. A walkthrough using today's curve.
The 2s10s steepener requires 4x capital, carries flat, and just ran into a bear flattener. Three calculators put exact numbers on every dimension of the trade's failure — tenor by tenor, basis point by basis point.
YCP's new Odds page brings Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities for Treasury yields, spreads, and Fed decisions — bridging prediction markets and fixed-income analytics on a single screen.