The blog shares commentary on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income securities, and the yield curve. Posts cover topics ranging from auction analysis to regime detection to yield curve similarity measures.
Instructions
Notes
This week's 10-year and 30-year auctions both printed soft while 2-year demand stayed near multi-year highs. What bid-to-cover measures, where each tenor stands today, and two case studies that show when one weak auction is noise and when it's signal.
Carry is the income a bond earns above its funding cost. Rolldown is the price appreciation from aging down a positively sloped curve. Together they define the baseline return of every duration position. A walkthrough using today's curve.
The 2s10s steepener requires 4x capital, carries flat, and just ran into a bear flattener. Three calculators put exact numbers on every dimension of the trade's failure — tenor by tenor, basis point by basis point.
Treasury sold $183 billion in notes during the first week of the Iran war. The grades: D, C-, D+. Four auction metrics reveal where demand disappeared.
We built a daily CFA-level quiz, then four more calculators to help you study for it.
The lifecycle portfolio calculator treats future income as human capital — a bond-like asset — and uses Choi, Liu & Liu (2025) to derive an optimal equity glide path grounded in theory, not rules of thumb.
YCP's new Odds page brings Kalshi and Polymarket implied probabilities for Treasury yields, spreads, and Fed decisions — bridging prediction markets and fixed-income analytics on a single screen.
yieldcurve.pro now has a REST API. Bearer token auth, JSON responses, 9 endpoints covering yields, auctions, forwards, term premia, regimes, and FOMC decisions.
Introducing ChatYCP — an AI research assistant embedded on every chart page that can query 25 years of Treasury data and answer fixed-income questions in real time.
A chronological tour of ten yield curve snapshots — precise to the basis point — from 9/11 to the 2023 term-premium surge. Each one a policy inflection point, a crisis record, or both.
The 10 Yr - 3 Mo yield curve — Campbell Harvey's original recession indicator, unblemished through eight cycles — inverted to nearly -200 bp in 2022 and held for two years. No recession came. We examine both inversion measures, trace the historical track record, and explain the four structural forces that overwhelmed the signal.
What are implied forward rates and how do you read them? A practical guide to extracting market expectations from the yield curve, with interactive charts.